Impact of urban and peri-urban growth on arable land (1976–2029) in a medium sized city of Shire Indaselassie, North Western Tigray, Ethiopia

Abstract Urban and peri-urban areas have been growing rapidly globally due to population increase other factors. However, poor urban land use planning caused remarkable impacts on the loss of potentially arable land. This study aimed analyze spatio-temporal patterns expansion its impact in Shire Indaselassie city, North Western Tigray. Multi-temporal spectral Landsat images were used as an input processed using TerrSet, ERDAS imagine 2015, ArcGIS 10.8.1 softwares. The Cellular Automata-Markov Chain model was predict future areas. Pearson correlation coefficient applied examine association among population, urban, growth, Stata/SE v14. findings revealed that lands increased by 7.5 km 2 (22.1%) 1.0 (2.9%), while decreased − 0.1 (− 0.2%) from 1976 2019. It is also predicted (2.80%) 0.9 (2.70%) until 2029, anticipated shrink 3.0%). relationship shows positive (r = 0.942, p 0.058; r 0.985, 0.016). has negatively correlated with 0.610, 0.392). result this research indispensable for planners decision makers optimize related information without jeopardizing size lands.